There was an interesting article in a recent issue of Naples Florida Weekly that went into depth about what Florida can expect in population growth in the years to come.

Here are some noteworthy tidbits:

  • Florida’s overall population is projected to grow 22% by 2030
  • As of the 2013 census, the fastest growing demographic groups in south Florida counties will be the Hispanic population and the over 65 age group
  • The Hispanic populations will increase by 47%, from 4.5 million to 6.6 million by 2030 and account for 28% of Florida’s population
  • The over 65 population will increase 60% from 3.5 million to 5.6 million and account for 24% of Florida’s population
  • Florida will soon, if not already, surpass New York as the third most populous state, behind California and Texas

How will Florida grow its population?

The article points out two ways. First, more people are born there than die. Second, more people move into that location than move out.

The Hispanic segment has a much higher birth rate than other demographic groups. Additionally, Hispanics will come to Florida from a foreign country or another state.

The west coast of Florida’s Hispanic population is projected to grow fast. Collier County’s Hispanic base will grow from 90,000 to 138,000, an increase of 52%, while Lee County will grow from 126,000 to 232,000, 84% growth by 2030.

Florida has a uniquely positive demographic position in that no state had more “net migrants” (which includes domestic moves from one state to another state and international people moving into the state) than Florida from April 1, 2010 through July 1, 2013 when some 618,000 people moved into Florida. That number was comprised of 318,000 international relocations and 310,000 U.S. citizens moving from another state into Florida.

With regard to international sources, Florida’s primary ones are Mexico, Central America and South America, a trend that’s expected to continue.

The census numbers for April 1, 2010 to July 2013 show that there was an exodus from northern to southern states. The Midwest lost 545,000 and the North lost 624,000 people while Southern states gained 1,129,000. The southerly migration count will increase when we enter the peak years for Baby Boomer retirement, as they will surely seek sunshine.

The University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic Development’s most recent population projection for Florida 2013 through 2030 shows an in increase in the over 65 population, and these numbers do not count the seasonal residents over 65.

Florida overall will increase the over 65 group from 3.5 million to 5.6 million. Collier County’s over 65 segment moves from 27% of the county’s population to 32%, while Lee County grows from 24% to 29%.

The projections paint the picture of what’s to come in Florida’s future. Read the full article here.