Naples’ entry level, affordable housing, also known as the under $300,000 market, is disappearing fast. Across the board, properties in this price range are appreciating on average at 1% a month. Naples own Cindy Carroll recently reported this, and while this may come as no real surprise to you, when Cindy Carroll speaks, everyone listens.

Who is Cindy Carroll you may ask? Cindy is a state-certified, residential real estate appraiser and owner of Carroll & Carroll Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants in Naples Florida. Cindy has grown up in Naples and as such brings a wealth of knowledge and history to her market statistics presentations. On this particular occasion, she reflected on the area’s supply and demand.

“In September 2013 I thought I was seeing stability market wide,” she said. “As the year has passed, I was wrong about that. I am seeing stability in some but not every community. Some neighborhoods still have a ways to go.”

The reasoning is likely because many are still feeling connected to 2005 and the consequences of it. Those that lived through the bubble and fallout won’t forget it, she said. Therefore, people are still cautious. “We could see this current pace of supply and demand go on for awhile, 24 to 36 months perhaps.”

Here’s closer look at Cindy’s findings of some key communities in Naples:

Port Royal Naples
Top of the last cycle in February 2005 with 32 homes on the market, 9 under contract & 48 sold in 365 days = 8 months of inventory
Top of the recession in February 2009 with 70 homes on the market, 2 under contract & 23 sold = 3 years of inventory
Topped out in November 2013 with 48 homes on the market, 2 under contract & 64 sold = 9 months of inventory
As of September 2014, 46 homes on the market, 3 under contract & 37 sold = 1.2 years of inventory

Aqualane Shores Naples
Top of the last cycle in December 2004 with 15 homes on the market, 13 under contract & 54 sold in 365 days = 3.3 months of inventory
Top of the recession in October 2009 with 42 homes for sale, 1 under contract & 9 sold = 4.7 years of inventory
Topped out in June 2013 with 15 homes on the market, 5 under contract & 33 sold = 5.5 months of inventory (regained a lot of is lost value)
As of September 2014, 19 homes on the market, 4 under contract & 24 sold = 9.5 months of inventory
Cindy said — balanced but not enough to push prices up just yet.

Royal Harbor Naples
Top of the last cycle in December 2004 with 11 homes on the market, 17 under contract & 44 sold in 365 days = 3.0 months of inventory
Top of the recession in April 2007 with 48 homes for sale, 5 under contract & 5 sold = 9.6 years of inventory
As of September 2014, 14 homes on the market, 5 under contract & 32 sold = 5.3 months of inventory
Cindy said — Royal Harbor traditionally trails Port Royal, Aqualane Shores and Moorings/Park Shore. As values top out on those areas, people will gravitate to Royal Harbor.

Area NA15 – East of 41, west of Goodlette
Top of the last cycle in February 2005 with 20 homes on the market, 26 under contract & 90 sold in 365 days = 2.7 months of inventory
Top of the recession in April 2007 with 115 homes on the market, 5 under contract & 33 sold = 3.5 years of inventory
Topped out in November 2013 with 17 homes on the market, 23 under contract & 104 sold = 2 months of inventory
As of September 2014, 20 homes on the market, 19 under contract & 100 sold = 2.4 months of inventory
Cindy said — This is a hot market with pressure on prices to up. Lake Park in Naples leads this area. If you were to look at the underlying land value here, you’d be surprised.

Old Naples Homes
Top of the last cycle in February 2005 with 42 homes on the market, 25 under contract & 98 sold in 365 days = 5 months of inventory
Top of the recession in December 2008 with 106 homes on the market, 3 under contract & 35 sold = 3.2 years of inventory
As of August 2014, 38 homes on the market, 11 under contract & 98 sold = 4.7 months of inventory
As of September 2014, 44 homes on the market, 5 under contract & 103 sold = 5.1 months of inventory
Cindy said — We have the same inventory today as we did at the top of the market in 2005. This area has surpassed 2005 values, particularly land values.

Old Naples Condos
Top of the last cycle in September 2005 with 47 condos on the market, 42 under contract & 148 sold in 365 days = 4 months of inventory
Top of the recession in April 2007 with 175 condos on the market, 18 under contract & 38 sold = 4.6 years of inventory
As of August 2014, 44 condos on the market, 12 under contract & 138 sold = 3.8 months of inventory
As of September 2014, 48 condos on the market, 9 under contract & 139 sold = 4.1 months of inventory

Crayton Road Area Homes
Top of the last cycle in September 2005 with 74 homes on the market, 18 under contract & 155 sold in 365 days = 5.8 months of inventory
Top of the recession in April 2007 with 200 homes on the market, 16 under contract & 54 sold = 3.7 years of inventory
As of September 2014, 71 homes on the market, 12 under contract & 146 sold = 5.8 months of inventory
Cindy said — This area’s underlying land value has recaptured what was lost during the recession. This area may be getting oversupplied in new construction.

Crayton Road Area Condos
Top of the last cycle in September 2005 with 130 condos on the market, 61 under contract & 488 sold in 365 days = 3 months of inventory
Top of the recession in February 2009 with 559 condos on the market, 25 under contract & 212 sold = 2.6 years of inventory
As of September 2014, 135 condos on the market, 40 under contract & 439 sold = 3.7 months of inventory

Pelican Bay Homes
Top of the recession in May 2009 with 45 homes on the market, 5 under contract & 18 sold in 365 days = 2.5 years of inventory
As of September 2014, 8 homes on the market, 3 under contract & 32 sold = 3 months of inventory
Cindy said – Values have to be pushing up strongly here.

Pelican Bay Condos
Top of the last cycle in September 2005 with 86 condos on the market, 42 under contract & 382 sold in 365 days = 2.7 months of inventory
Top of the recession in April 2007 with 274 condos on the market, 51 under contract & 145 sold = 1.9 years of inventory
In August 2014, 63 condos on the market, 29 under contract & 297 sold = 2.5 months of inventory
As of September 2014, 65 condos on the market, 27 under contract & 296 sold = 2.6 months of inventory
Cindy said – There is virtually no inventory here today putting this area on target with 2005. Even with season approaching,when we typically see at 10% increase in inventory, there’s still not enough available for sale. For example, in the $300,000-$500,000 price range, there are only 5 condos for sale and 90 sold in the last 365 days.

Pine Ridge Homes
Top of the last cycle in February 2005 with 11 homes on the market, 6 under contract & 29 sold in 365 days = 4.5 months of inventory
Top of the recession in May 2008 with 45 homes on the market, 3 under contract & 6 sold = 7.5 years of inventory
Topped out in September 2013 with 20 homes on the market, 7 under contract & 36 sold = 6.7 months of inventory
As of September 2014, 24 homes on the market, 7 under contract & 29 sold = 10 months of inventory
Cindy said – Pine Ridge has recovered most of its land value. It should be back on its way to a balanced market.

Golden Gates Estates Area NA22 – South of Immokalee Road, west of 951
Top of the last cycle in September 2005 with 34 homes on the market, 9 under contract & 68 sold in 365 days = 6 months of inventory
Top of the recession in May 2008 with 108 homes on the market, 5 under contract & 15 sold = 7.2 years of inventory
Topped out in March 2013 with 28 homes on the market, 30 under contract & 70 sold = 4.8 months of inventory
As of September 2014, 34 homes on the market, 16 under contract & 77 sold = 5.3 months of inventory
Cindy said — Land values here are coming up “wonderfully.”

Grey Oaks Naples (excluding Estuary)
Top of the last cycle in September 2005 with 16 homes on the market, 0 under contract & 29 sold in 365 days = 6.5 months of inventory
Top of the recession in February 2012 with 50 homes on the market, 2 under contract & 12 sold = 4.2 years of inventory
Topped out in September 2013 with 20 homes on the market, 4 under contract & 41 sold = 5.8 months of inventory
As of September 2014, 24 homes on the market, 6 under contract & 41 sold = 7 months of inventory

Vineyards Homes
Top of the last cycle in September 2005 with 15 homes on the market, 14 under contract & 71 sold in 365 days = 2.5 months of inventory
Top of the recession in April 2007 with 94 homes on the market, 3 under contract & 26 sold = 3.6 years of inventory
As of September 2014, 31 homes on the market, 8 under contract & 75 sold = 5 months of inventory
Cindy said – This community has gone a whole year with less than 6 months of inventory (September 2013-September 2014)

Vanderbilt Beach Homes
Top of the last cycle in September 2005 with 26 homes on the market, 5 under contract & 38 sold in 365 days = 8.2 months of inventory
Top of the recession in January 2007 with 63 homes on the market, 4 under contract & 14 sold = 4.5 years of inventory
As of September 2014, 20 homes on the market, 0 under contract & 38 sold = 6.3 months of inventory
Cindy said — This area has pretty much recovered all of its land value.

Collier’s Reserve Naples
Top of the recession in March 2008 with 20 homes on the market, 1 under contract & 7 sold in 365 days = 2.9 years of inventory
As of September 2014, 9 homes on the market, 1 under contract & 14 sold = 7.7 months of inventory
One year ago, 16 homes on the market, 2 under contract & 10 sold = 1.6 years of inventory

Quail West Naples (Collier County)
Top of the last cycle in December 2005 with 10 homes on the market, 2 under contract & 15 sold in 365 days = 8 months of inventory
Top of the recession in April 2007 with 25 homes on the market, 3 under contract & 3 sold = 8.3 years of inventory
Topped out in June 2013 with 22 homes on the market, 9 under contract & 29 sold = 9 months of inventory
As of September 2014, 31 homes on the market, 6 under contract & 21 sold = 1.5 years of inventory

Quail Creek Naples
Top of the last cycle in September 2005 with 8 homes on the market, 5 under contract & 31 sold in 365 days = 3 months of inventory
Top of the recession in December 2008 with 33 homes on the market, 1 under contract & 5 sold = 6.6 years of inventory
Topped out in November 2010 with 23 homes on the market, 4 under contract & 17 sold = 1.4 years of inventory
As of September 2014, 29 homes on the market, 3 under contract & 21 sold = 1.4 years of inventory
Holding steady at 1.4 years of supply since November 2010.

Imperial Golf Estates Naples
Top of the recession in January 2009 with 39 homes on the market, 3 under contract & 28 sold in 365 days = 1.4 years of inventory
As of September 2014, 11 homes on the market, 2 under contract & 48 sold = 2.8 months of inventory

Lakewood Homes
Top of the last cycle in February 2005 with 0 homes on the market, 2 under contract & 27 sold in 365 days = No Supply
Top of the recession in October 2008 with 22 homes on the market, 2 under contract & 4 sold = 5.5 years of inventory
In August 2014, 2 homes on the market, 1 under contract & 27 sold = less than one month of inventory
As of September 2014, 7 homes on the market, 1 under contract & 26 sold = 3.2 months of inventory

Golden Gate City Homes
Top of the last cycle in February 2005 with 37 homes on the market, 36 under contract & 270 sold in 365 days = 1.6 months of inventory
Top of the recession in May 2008 with 338 homes on the market, 31 under contract & 42 sold = 8.05 years of inventory
Topped out in November 2012 with 25 homes on the market, 124 under contract & 289 sold = 1 month of inventory
Cindy said — There’s been a concern throughout the community that there will soon be an oversupply of homes for sale here by one investor who bought a huge grouping of homes, but research shows there is no one investor that owns a significant amount of homes in the area.

In a market with so little inventory for sale, it is difficult to price a home, Cindy said.